Vote Counting in the Senate

It can be frustrating if you finally win a Congressional seat or win the presidency, and you cannot enact your agenda due to deadlock. This vote counting tool was meant to help you strategically spend your resources to affect the outcome of the next election.

Overview
The U.S. Senate is elected from the 50 states, with 2 senators representing each state. Under default initial demographics (4/11/2020), this arrangement slightly favors the Republican party. If all Senate seats were elected at the same time, a neutral election should lead us to expect an average party makeup of 46 Republicans from 23 R-leaning states (5% or more), 38 Democrats from 19 D-leaning states (5% or more), and 16 tossups in the remaining 8 states. However, the Senate is actually elected in 3 staggered classes, so previous elections will always have residual effects on the Senate makeup. Furthermore, the overall partisan lean of each class varies slightly, and this changes the number of seats in each election that could realistically "swing" for a certain party.



Majority
The political party that controls 51 or more seats in the U.S. Senate, OR which controls 50 seats and the vice-presidency, has party control of the chamber. Party control increases the likelihood that a party's preferred legislation will pass. Senators in the majority party are eligible to chair committees and refuse hearings to bills they do not like. Likewise, party control prevents the opposition from using a party-line vote to block your own party's bills in committee.

The number of seats needed to gain or keep the majority in a particular election first depends on how many of the uncontested seats (not up for election) are already held. For simplicity this tool will assume a general case where the last two elections basically balanced each other--- the party breakdown will be as if each uncontested seat were held according to partisan lean. There are 26 states that lean Republican and 24 that lean Democratic. The three tables on the right rank all states in each class by their demographic lean.

Class I election year
The uncontested seats are 39R-28D. Either party can get to 51 seats by winning in Arizona, West Virginia, and all states more favorable.

Class II election year
The uncontested seats are 31R-36D. Either party can get to 51 seats by winning in Iowa, North Carolina, and all states more favorable.

Class III election year
The uncontested seats are 34R-32D. Either party can get to 51 seats by winning in North Carolina, Arizona, and all states more favorable.

Ways to gain or keep the majority:
- Run proteges in the crucial states. Donate money to them (coming soon).

- If you are a popular president running for reelection, campaign more heavily in the swing states that have a vulnerable Senator (of either party) up for reelection. This can raise enthusiasm among your party's voters in those states.

-Remember that various details affect elections, especially from state to state, so you likely cannot count on winning every one of your leans and every tossup. That means you likely need even more difficult seats to make up for the occasional loss on easier ground.

Super-majority (Cloture)
The U.S. Senate in The Political Process does not currently follow a cloture procedure for any bills. Cloture is a vote to close debate on a bill, literally a vote on whether to proceed to the vote. If cloture is ever added in a future game update, this section may include an analysis about how to get to a filibuster-proof majority of 60 votes.

Super-majority (Veto Override)
Even with a party majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate, your bills will not become law if you have a president that is willing to make frequent use of the veto power. The easiest way around this is for your party to win the next presidential election. However, if demographics have shifted, and the president is unpopular, and you have enough proteges running in key races, it might be interesting to try for a 2/3 super-majority in both House and Senate. On the other hand, if you are in the minority, you want to prevent super-majority in at least one chamber and thereby protect the president's veto. In the Senate, a super-majority means controlling 67 or more seats. In The Political Process, any bill that is passed by at least 290 U.S. representatives AND 67 U.S. senators will automatically pass into law over the president's veto.

Realistically, a good performance in 3 consecutive Senate elections (or a VERY good performance in 2 of the 3) is essential because of the staggered design of these elections.

Republican path
One of the ways for Republicans to get to 67 is with a commanding performance in Class 1 (enough to pick up 3 out of these 4: Connecticut, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Washington), a better-than average election in Class 2 (Colorado) and a good performance in Class 3 (New Hampshire, Nevada). The best case for the above strategy is when Class 1 and 3 fall on midterms with Democratic presidents and a close but losing presidential year (Class 2) in between.

In any case, at least 1 Senator of Republicans' super-majority has to come from a state that leans Democratic by 7% or more.

Democratic path
It's extremely difficult for Democrats to get to 67 under default state demographics, but they can maybe get there if they have a good election in Class 1 (must win Arizona) combined with stellar performances in Classes 2 and 3, good enough to win 11 of these 14 races:

C1: West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri

C2: Georgia, West Virginia, Alaska, Kansas, South Carolina

C3: Georgia, Alaska, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, South Carolina

The path seems most viable when Class 1 falls in a reelection year for a Republican president where the Democrats narrowly lose, and then Class 2 falls on the midterm and Class 3 on a very good presidential year. (Ironically they almost certainly gain the presidency rendering the super-majority moot.)

No matter how you cut it, at least 3 Senators in Democrats' super-majority have to come from states that lean Republican by 13% or more.

Wait for your year(s)
In elections, long winning streaks and tidy trends are not all that common, meaning that the nationwide vote tends to fluctuate. Midterm and presidential years usually pull in opposite directions. There is some conventional wisdom as to what kind of election years will give you a boost. To determine your best strategy in the Senate, you want to pay attention to the next three elections. Watch for a 3-election series where several of the following factors can be expected to combine in your favor:

-Your party will have a strong presidential candidate up for election or reelection (especially a first election following a 2-term retiring president from the opposition party)

-A midterm year when the sitting president will be from the opposition party

-Your opposition has total control of the presidency, House and Senate and national approval is low

-Your own party has total control of the presidency, House and Senate and national approval is high

-(For Democrats) any generic presidential year

-(For Republicans) any generic midterm year

-(For Democrats) Class II or Class III year

-(For Republicans) Class I or Class III year