Vote Counting in the House of Representatives

It can be frustrating if you finally win a Congressional seat or win the presidency, and you cannot enact your agenda due to deadlock. This vote counting tool was meant to help you strategically spend your resources to affect the outcome of the next election.

Overview
In default mode (4/8/2020) the House of Representatives is elected from an initial district configuration that slightly favors the Republican party. In a neutral election under this configuration, you should expect an average party makeup of 208 Republicans from R-leaning districts (5% or more), 187 Democrats from D-leaning districts (5% or more), and 40 tossups (in between). These 40 swing districts are identified in the table to the right.

Majority
The political party that controls 218 or more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives has party control of the chamber. To pass a bill on the floor of the House, 218 or more votes are needed. Representatives in the majority party are eligible to chair committees and refuse hearings to bills they do not like. Likewise, party control prevents the opposition from using a party-line vote to block your own party's bills in committee.

If Republicans hold all the R-lean districts, then Republicans need to win only 10 of the 40 tossups for a bare majority. If Democrats hold all the D-lean districts, they still have to to win 31 more. The median House seat leans Republican by 3%. Democrats need to win at least 4 seats that lean Republican by 3% or more, which sounds hard but is not uncommon.

Ways to gain or keep the majority:
- Move to an R+3 or tougher congressional district in your state and run there yourself.

- Run proteges in the crucial R+3 districts. Donate money to them (coming soon).

- If you are a popular president running for reelection, campaign in states that are represented in the swing districts chart (California, Florida, Minnesota, Michigan...) in order to raise enthusiasm among your party's voters in those states.

-Remember that various details affect elections, especially from state to state, so you likely cannot count on winning every one of your leans and every tossup. That means you likely need even more difficult seats to make up for the occasional loss on easier ground.

Super-majority
Even with a party majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate, your bills will not become law if you have a president that is willing to make frequent use of the veto power. The easiest way around this is for your party to win the next presidential election. However, if demographics have shifted, and the president is unpopular, and you have enough proteges running in key races, it might be interesting to try for a 2/3 super-majority in both House and Senate. On the other hand, if you are in the minority, you want to prevent a super-majority in at least one chamber and thereby protect the president's veto. In the House of Representatives, a super-majority means winning 290 or more seats. In The Political Process, any bill that is passed by at least 290 U.S. representatives AND 67 U.S. senators will automatically pass into law over the president's veto.

Surprisingly, winning a House super-majority is about equally difficult for both of the major political parties. Republicans need fewer seats beyond their demographic advantage, but the seats they need go more deeply into opposition territory.

Supposing Republicans win their 208 leans and all 40 seats on the tossup chart, they will still need to win another 42 seats in Democratic territory. The lowest hanging fruit are detailed in the blue chart. Winning 42 of these seats means Republicans would need to win at least 6 seats where the demographics skew Democratic by 15% or more.

For Democrats, their 187 leans and all 40 tossups leave them 63 seats short of the House super-majority. Perhaps due to Republican gerrymanders in various large states like North Carolina and Ohio, Democrats make up a lot of ground if they can pick up the numerous districts that are only slightly Republican. Refer to the red chart further down in order to see that Democrats would need to win at least 6 seats where the demographics skew Republican by 13% or more.

Wait for your year
A neutral election is not all that common, meaning that the nationwide vote tends to fluctuate. There is some conventional wisdom as to what kind of election years will give you a boost. For the biggest boost, watch for a year that combines 2-3 of the following factors and exert your greatest effort on the relevant campaign(s).

-Your party has a strong presidential candidate up for election or reelection (especially a first election following a 2-term retiring president from the opposition party)

-A midterm year when the sitting president is from the opposition party

-Your opposition has total control of the presidency, House, and Senate and national approval is low

-Your party has total control of the presidency, House, and Senate and national approval is high

-(For Democrats) any generic presidential year

-(For Republicans) any generic midterm year